by Magued Mohamed.
On Thursday 4th of July 2013, a seminar entitled Limits to Growth was held in Sunseed. The moderator presented the contents and the predictions of a scientific book entitled “limits to Growth” which was published in 1972 by the Club of Rome, whose aim is to discuss short-term thinking in international affairs regarding unlimited resource consumption in an increasingly interdependent world. Then he compared its predictions to a scientific paper entitled “A comparison of the Limits to Growth with thirty years of reality” by Graham Turner which was published in 2008. Finally he discussed his prediction of CO2 emissions’ curve based on the book‘s Standard Run scenario of the pollution curve. In 1798, an English Anglican priest published an anonymous essay on the principle of population which sparked a massive interests and controversies. In contrary to the optimism of the Zeitgeist, the outcome of the book was pessimistic. He concluded that people will die due to famine and diseases and emphasized “Doomsday Scenario”. What made this essay influential is not the religious tone in it but the mathematical and scientific arguments on which it was based. The main argument was that people grow exponentially whilst resources grow linearly. This essay inspired Charles Darwin, Karl Marx, Charles Dickens and others. However, the data in the twentieth century did not tally with these predictions as world population grew, agricultural yield increased due to green revolutions and disease were taken care of by the advancement of medicine. In an attempt to reexamine these predictions, Club of Rome commissioned a group of scientists from MIT led by Dr. Donella Meadows to investigate the matter. The commission used a simulation computer model called Wordl3. Five variables were examined in the original model, on the assumptions that world population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion have an exponential tendency to grow. On the other hand, the ability of technology to increase the availability of resources grows only linearly. The main purpose of The Limits to Growth was not to make specific predictions with numbers and values, but rather to explore how exponential growth interacts with finite resources and to show their tendencies. Data from 1900 to 1970 were fed into World3. Three scenarios were generated: Standard Run; Comprehensive Technology and Stabilized Run.
Fig 1: Standard Run. Standard Run (the actual business-as-usual situation) has parameters reflecting physical, economic and social relationships where these parameters were maintained in the World3 model at values consistent with the period 1900-1970.
Fig 2: Comprehensive Technology. Comprehensive Technology (the optimistic scenario) which attempts to solve sustainability issues with a broad range of purely technological solutions; assuming resources are effectively unlimited; 75% of materials are recycled; pollution generation is reduced to 25% of its 1970 value; agricultural land yields are doubled and birth control is available world-wide.
Fig 3: Stabilized Run with stabilized population and capital. Stabilized Run (the rational scenario) has stable population and capital, with the forces tending to increase or decrease them in a carefully controlled balance. In order to do so, the capital and the population are constant in size with constant rate and that all rates are kept to a minimum. This target can be achieved by either enforcing negative feedback such as the pollution; the depletion of resources or the famine or by weakening positive feedback such as reducing birth rate or reducing capital growth. The authors concluded that if the current growth trends continue unchanged the limits to growth will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years (2072); the most probable result will be a sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity and recommended altering these trends to establish a sustainable conditions of ecological and economic stability through a state of global equilibrium; the sooner the better. The concept of “sustainable development” instead of economical growth is a direct result of this essay. A comparison of the limits to growth with 30 years of reality by Graham Turner was published in June 2008. The author stated that the recommendations of Limits to Growth to reach a stabilized world were not taken. The analysis showed that observed data after 30 years compare favorably with Standard Run scenario and indicates the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution. Prediction of CO2 emissions from the year 2000 to 2100 based on the book‘s Standard Run scenario of the pollution was presented.
Fig 4: estimated CO2 emissions Gtons/Year.
It is predicted that CO2 will increase until the year 2035 reaching (20.16Gtons) then decrease with different rates until it reaches (0.8064Gtons) by 2100.
Fig 5: estimated CO2 emissions with 15% error.
When a 15% margin of error is introduced to the model, CO2 will increase until the year 2035 reaching (17.136 Gtons) then decrease with different rates until it reaches (0.68544Gtons) by 2100. The following table reflects the measured data by US Energy Information Administration and predicted values.
Year | estimated data without error margin | estimated data with 15% error margin | measured data |
2000 | 5.76 | 4.896 | 6.586 |
2001 | 6.12864 | 5.209344 | 6.612 |
2002 | 6.49728 | 5.522688 | 6.797 |
2003 | 6.86592 | 5.836032 | 7.087 |
2004 | 7.23456 | 6.149376 | 7.400 |
2005 | 7.6032 | 6.46272 | 7.707 |
2006 | 7.98336 | 6.785856 | 7.917 |
2007 | 8.36352 | 7.108992 | 8.109 |
2008 | 8.74368 | 7.432128 | 8.251 |
2009 | 9.12384 | 7.755264 | 8.246 |
2010 | 9.504 | 8.0784 | 8.591 |
2011 | 9.792 | 8.3232 | 8.885 |
2012 | 10.08 | 8.568 | 9.709 |
- Teklay W. Asegehegn, 2011, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) lecture notes
- Graham Turner, 2008, A comparison to the limits to growth with 30 years of reality, CSIRO
- Meadows, D.H. ,1972, the limits to growth, universe books
- ORNL, 2011, Global Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions, accessed from: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.html accessed on 12.01.2012
- CO₂ emissions data from US energy information administration, accessed from http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8&cid=regions&syid=2000&eyid=2011&unit=MMTCD
We have another project to be inaugurated in july: the new illumination of the compost toilet area. Solar panel, battery, charge controller, connections, led, direct current, voltaje, are expressions without mystery for Inga, Cristabel, Raviya y Clemens. We’ll post pictures in next post.
Last, to comment that this month went back to her country the more amazing person with who I have shared several month and projects here in Sunseed. Is about Irina, who left in all us a deep impression. I wish her the best in her way, and, if possible, share part of it.
You can watch all the pictures about the activities in the next albums:
Sunseed AT Junio 2013 |
Sunseed AT Mesas Junio 2013 |
Sunseed AT Gas-Bio Junio 2013 |
Sunseed Junio 2013 |
Otro proyecto está en marcha, para ser inaugurado la primera semana de Julio: la nueva iluminación solar de la letrina de compost. Panel solar, batería, controlador de carga, conexiones, diodos led, corriente continua, voltaje, son términos que han dejado de tener misterio para Inga, Cristabel, Raviya y Clemens. Fotos del evento en un próximo escrito.
Por último, mencionar que este mes se volvió a su país la persona más fantástica con la que he compartido varios meses y proyectos aquí en Sunseed. Se trata de Irina, la cual ha dejado una profunda huella en todos nosotros y a la que deseo lo mejor en su camino, y, si puede ser, que volvamos a compartir parte del mismo.
Podéis ver todas las fotos de las actividades en estos álbumes:
Sunseed AT Junio 2013 |
Sunseed AT Mesas Junio 2013 |
Sunseed AT Gas-Bio Junio 2013 |
Sunseed Junio 2013 |
Did you know that there are scholarships to attend 1-week training in Spain ( at Sunseed Spain) covering ALL costs(incl.travel and accomodation)?
_ –>We are very happy to announce that we have being accredited to run the course LEARNING FROM THE NATURAL WORLD – Is there a place for nature rights and the ecoCitizenship in Europe? in March 2014 funded by the European Union Grundtvig Program. This would not have being possible without the work of Martin Hyams and Roberto Bortoletto. Martin has being the assistant of the CE department for 3 months and already participated in the application and organization of last year Grundtvig seminar ” Seeding Change”. Roberto, a student from the University Ca Foscari was doing an internship funded by the Erasmus program. They both work together in the research, design and application of the course. Maybe, they will be back in March to support the implementation of the course.Learning from the natural world
an In-Service Training Course
Sorbas, 24 – 29 March 2014
Sunseed Desert Technology in Southern Spain will be running the course Learning from the natural world – is there a place for nature rights and the ecoCitizenship in Europe? This is a European granted In-Service Training (IST) course funded through the Grundtvig Lifelong Adult Learning Programme. It is designed for people working – full-time or part-time, paid or unpaid – in adult education, training or community activism.
Running from 24th – 29th March 2014, the course will be located in Sunseed at Los Molinos del Rio de Aguas in the Natural Park of Karst en Yesos de Sorbas. Los Molinos del Rio Aguas is characterised for being off-grid and low-impact as well as for its several organic gardens.
The course has been developed as a response to the local and global situation of economic and environmental crises. The course is innovative and unique, and poses questions such as:
-
how can we bring the natural world into the learning environment?
-
how can we create spaces that nurture learning for liberation?
-
how can we facilitate experiential and participatory learning styles?
Morning sessions are practical activities that introduce the work of different departments – organic gardening, appropriate technology and sustainable living. Course participants will join the community (household rota, job allocation, community announcements) to reflect practical aspects of ecoCitizenship and nature rights.
Afternoon workshops focus on:
-
Using the natural world to inspire practical learning and active participation
-
Is there a future for the ecoCitizenship and for “nature rights” within Europe?
-
Paulo Freire – learning methodologies to enhance the learning experience
-
“I have a dream” – celebrating the 50th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s watershed speech
ACCOMMODATION & VEGETARIAN MEALS 250 euros
TUITION FEES/MATERIALS 650 euros
Application deadline: 1 September 2013
Interested to find out more?
More information at our Website courses
Contact Clara Ruiz de Gauna at sunseed@sunseed.org.uk or phone (0034) 950 525 770
Estamos muy content@s de anunciar que hemos sido acreditaos para hacer el curso “Aprender desde el mundo natural- ¿Hay espacio para los derechos de la naturaleza y la ecoCiudadanía en Europa?” para marzo del 2014 a traves del Programa Grundtvig de Aprendizaje Permanente para Adultos (Grundtvig Lifelong Adult Learning Programme). Esto no hubiera sido posible sin el increible trabajo de Martin Hyams y Roberto Bortolleto. Martin, quien ya trabajo el pasado ano en la solicitud, diseno e implementacion del seminario GRundvig ” Semillas de Cambio”, ha sido asistente en el departamento de Comunicacion y Educacion de Sunseed durante 3 meses. Roberto es un estudiante italiano de la universidad Ca Foscari que ha realizado unas prácticas en el departamento financiado por el Programa Europeo Eramus. Ambos han trabajado en investigar posibilidades de financiacion para el curso asi como en su diseno y presentacion para ser candidato a ser un curso Grundtvig. Todos en Sunseed hemos recibido esta noticia muy felices.Aprender desde el mundo natural
un curso de formación Grundtvig
Sorbas, 24-29 de Marzo de 2014
Sunseed Desert Technology en Almería realizará el curso Aprender desde el mundo natural- ¿Hay espacio para los derechos de la naturaleza y la ecoCiudadanía en Europa? Es un curso de formación(IST- In-Service Training) garantizado por la Unión Europea, será financiado a través del Programa Grundtvig de Aprendizaje Permanente para Adultos (Grundtvig Lifelong Adult Learning Programme). Está diseñado para aquellos que trabajan- de tiempo completo o media jornada, remunerados o no remunerados- en el ámbito de la educación de adultos, entrenamiento o activismo de comunidad.
El curso se realizará desde el 24 hasta el 29 de Marzo en Sunseed, en Los Molinos del Río de Aguas en el Parque Natural de Karst en Yesos de Sorbas. Los Molinos del Río de Aguas se caracteriza por la vida bajo impacto ambiental e independiente de la red eléctrica y de agua, así como por sus numerosos huertos ecológicos.
El curso fue desarrollado como respuesta a la situación local y global de crisis economica y ambiental. El curso es único e innovador y plantea cuestiones como:
-
¿Cómo podemos llevar el mundo natural al ambiente educativo?
-
¿Cómo podemos crear espacios que promuevan la educación para la liberación?
-
¿Cómo podemos facilitar estilos de aprendizaje a través de la experiencia y participación?
Las sesiones por la mañana y actividades prácticas que introducen el trabajo de departamentos diferentes- huertos ecológicos, tecnologías apropiadas y vida sostenible. Los participantes al curso se unirán a la comunidad (en rotación doméstica, en la asignación del trabajo asi como en los anuncios diarios de la comunidad) para reflejar aspectos prácticos de la ecoCiudadanía y los derechos de la naturaleza.
Los talleres por la tarde se concentran en:
-
Utilizar el mundo natural para inspirar el aprendizaje práctico y la participación activa
-
¿Hay un futuro para la ecoCiudadanía y los “derechos de la naturaleza” en Europa?
-
Paulo Freire- metodologías de aprendizaje para mejorar la experiencia educativa
-
“I have a dream”– celebración del 50° aniversario del discurso parteaguas de Martin Luther King
ALOJAMIENTO & COMIDAS VEGETARIANAS 250 euros
CUOTA DE INSCRIPCIÓN/MATERIALES 650 euros
Fecha límite de inscripción: 1 de septiembre de 2013
¿Te interesa saber algo más?
Mas informacion en nuestra sección de cursos.
Contacta con Clara Ruiz de Gauna a sunseed@sunseed.org.uk o
teléfono (0034) 950 525 770